Deutsche Bank Expects Firefly to Sell Only 1.5k Units/Month Citing ‘Unique Exterior Design’

Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X

Wall Street analysts are already releasing sales forecasts for Firefly, Nio’s compact EV subbrand, even though the official pricing details remain undisclosed. Nio launched reservations for the Firefly on Saturday, unveiling a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan ($20,400).

Deliveries in China are scheduled to begin in April 2025, around the European launch event which is planned for “the first half of next year,” according to the company’s founder and CEO William Li. The exact start date for deliveries in Europe is still unclear.

In the region, the Firefly will be sold through local distribution partners, which Nio has already secured in several countries. During a media Q&A session on Sunday, Nio’s CEO William Li confirmed agreements with multiple European partners for the brand’s entry.

While Nio previously indicated it expects Firefly to achieve monthly sales in the thousands, Deutsche Bank has a more modest forecast. The firm predict sales will reach 1,500 units per month, citing the model’s “unique exterior design” as a factor that could limit its demand.

“We are relatively conservative on Firefly sales outlook due to its unique exterior design, and expect the product to sell 1,500 unit per month, below the company’s forecast of monthly several thousand units,” Deutsche Bank’s Wang Bin wrote in a research note shared by CnEVpost.

Although the Firefly’s interior design will only be revealed next year, its front-end styling has generated a lot of discussion on both Chinese and international social media.

In the same note, the Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin praised the technologies shared by Nio for its luxury model the ET9 and set the same volume forecast for the first production months. “We appreciate the ET9 sedan’s elegant design and advanced technologies, and estimate it will sell approximately 1,500 units per month,” the analyst wrote.

On Sunday, Li admitted that the brand was initially planned to be launched in Europe, however, the plan changed after the recently introduced tariffs by the European Commission which affected Nio with an extra 21.7% duties.

“Even so, Firefly is very competitive because it is a product developed with real smart EV technologies, which Nio has been investing in for a decade. We are confident in its product competitiveness.”

The EV maker has designed new battery swap stations for Firefly vehicles with Europe in mind aiming to make the construction faster and significantly cheaper. The new stations were not yet revealed.

Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X